Montran World Cup 2026 · group-stage projection

How it
ends

Where the table lands after all 72 group games. With 32 scored and 40 to go, each remaining match is bootstrapped from a player's own scoring history (20,000 simulated tournaments) to give a projected final total, an 80% range, and the odds of finishing top.

Backtest — forecasting matches 15–32 from 1–14: mean error ±22.9 pts per player. Raw bootstrap bands covered only 68% of outcomes, so intervals are widened ×1.4 to a calibrated 80% coverage of the 80% range (target ≈ 80%).
Projected to win
raresFarcas
18% title odds · proj. 369 pts
Most uncertain run-in
Montran
80% range 268–419 (151 pts wide)

Title race · odds to finish #1

18%raresFarcas
16%Radu V
10%Montran
9%raluca
8%Stochastic Parrot

Projected final standings

ProjPlayerProjected final (80% range) FinalWinTop 3
#1raresFarcasnow #1 · 164
369306–43218%42%
#2Radu Vnow #2 · 160
360290–43116%35%
#3Tricoloriinow #3 · 157
354301–4068%27%
#4ralucanow #4 · 154
347283–4139%25%
#5mbogdannow #5 · 154
346287–4067%24%
#6Stochastic Parrotnow #6 · 153
344284–4078%22%
#7Montrannow #7 · 152
342268–41910%25%
#8Dali002now #8 · 151
340284–3965%18%
#9Inoascanow #9 · 146
329270–3873%13%
#10Tay Taynow #10 · 144
324261–3874%13%
#11marcus23now #11 · 143
321268–3752%8%
#12Raisanow #12 · 142
319266–3782%9%
#13gnitanow #13 · 139
313251–3773%9%
#14Gullit26now #14 · 135
304252–356<1%4%
#15Arhentinaanow #15 · 131
295238–355<1%4%
#16The Houndnow #16 · 130
292234–353<1%4%
#17Cristinow #18 · 128
288217–3642%6%
#18ri2cnow #17 · 128
288235–341<1%2%
#19Pikachunow #20 · 127
286227–346<1%2%
#20HoratiuTnow #19 · 127
286231–342<1%2%
#21Rocky Gratianonow #22 · 126
283234–335<1%<1%
#22vladivostoknow #21 · 126
283223–3491%4%
#23Alexandrainow #23 · 116
261195–331<1%2%
#24loaded friesnow #24 · 107
241191–291<1%<1%
#25Crinow #25 · 50
11363–1680%0%
█ bar = 80% range| bright tick = projection | faint tick = current points

Each unplayed match is a random draw from that player's own per-match points so far (skipped games count as 0, so low engagement carries forward). All 20,000 tournaments are simulated jointly, tie-broken by the pool tiebreaker, to read off win / top-3 odds. Caveats: it assumes scoring rate and engagement hold, and that remaining games keep the same MOTD/scorer mix; Matchday-3 dead rubbers add real chaos the model can't see, and thin samples get wide bands. Treat it as the shape of the run-in, not a prophecy.